July 13, 2026: Recently, a liquid fuel shortage has begun across most of Russia. The cause was growing Ukrainian drone attacks on fuel storage sites, pipelines, and oil refineries. The drone attacks have been increasing in number over the years. The cumulative damage to Russian petroleum-related enterprises and infrastructure in general has reached unsustainable levels. This may explain reports that the war in Ukraine may soon be over.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians pointed out that drones were an unexpected development that had a huge impact on how battles in Ukraine were fought. Drones were successful because they were cheap, easily modified, and expendable. Modifications and upgrades could be implemented quickly and inexpensively. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces were soon using cheap quadcopter drones controlled by soldiers a few kilometers distant using FPV/First Person View goggles to see what the day/night video camera on the drone can see. Adding night vision is available when needed, at a higher cost per drone. These drones cost a few hundred dollars each, with the most complex models going for about a thousand dollars. Most of these drones carry half a kilogram of explosives, so operators can instantly turn the drone into a flying bomb that can fly into a target and detonate. Some drones carry more explosives depending on what is needed to deal with a target.

These drones are awesome and debilitating weapons when used in large numbers. If a target isn’t moving or requires more explosive power than the drones can supply, one of the drone operators can call in artillery, rocket, or missile fire, or even an airstrike. Larger, fixed-wing drones are used for long-range operations, often over a thousand kilometers, against targets deep inside Russia.

Drones are usually able to complete their mission, whether it is a one-way attack or reconnaissance and surveillance. The recon missions are usually survivable and enable the drone to be reused. All these drones are constantly performing surveillance, which means that both sides commit enough drones to maintain constant surveillance over a portion of the front line to a depth of at least a few kilometers into enemy territory. Longer-range drones can track Russian operations hundreds of kilometers behind the front lines.

This massive use of FPV-armed drones has revolutionized warfare in Ukraine, and both sides are producing as many as they can. Russia now produces its own drones after briefly using imported Iranian Shahed-136 drones, which cost over $100,000 each. Ukraine demonstrated that it could design and build drones with similar capabilities for less than a tenth of that cost. The Iranian drone was more complex than it needed to be, and even the Russians soon realized this and turned away from the Shahed-136 in favor of more capable drones they copied from Ukrainian designs or their own. Russia still uses its Shahed drones because they have a factory to build them, and the more airborne drones it can send on a mission, the better the chance that some will hit the target. There are also larger fixed-wing drones that can drop bombs or release smaller attack drones. These larger bomber drones can also transport supplies to troops who are otherwise hard to reach.

Ukraine has also developed land-based DV/Drone Vehicles to carry supplies or transport casualties. DVs have revolutionized combat zone transportation. The DVs are operated remotely and can often make a trip autonomously. In Ukraine, the battlefield is increasingly dominated by unmanned air and land vehicles. The operators stay in bunkers and rarely venture out. The combat zone is under constant surveillance, and if infantry advance, they do so in small groups under the protection of their own drones.

Conventional artillery, mortar, and rocket weapons have had to change the way they operate. They must fire a few rounds quickly and move before counterfire hits them. Because of this, these weapons are less effective, and drones now account for over 80 percent of casualties. Tanks and other armored vehicles are similarly constrained and have to be used infrequently lest they be swarmed by drones and destroyed or immobilized.

Military leaders in other nations have noted this and are scrambling to equip their own forces with the most effective drones. Not having enough of these to match the number the enemy has in a portion of the front means you are at a serious disadvantage in that area. These drones are still evolving in design and use, becoming more effective and essential.

One countermeasure that can work for a while is electronic jamming of the drones’ control signal. Drone guidance systems are continually modified or upgraded to address this. Most drones have flight control software that returns drones with jammed control signals to their takeoff point to land for reuse. The jammers on the ground can be attacked by drones programmed to home in on the jamming signal. Countermeasures can be overcome, and the side that does so more quickly and completely has an advantage. That advantage is usually temporary because both sides are investing significant effort to keep their combat drones effective on the battlefield.

The widespread use of drones has turned combat brigades, battalions, and companies into avid users. While Ukraine has a separate Drone Force for developing new drones and assessing the use of current ones, most drones are used by regular combat units. Some of these units are selected to test new drones or drone concepts.

Another development was the way Ukrainian-developed drones changed the nature and cost of warfare. Drones are cheap and the drone operators are rarely casualties. Ukrainian civilians and soldiers often modify their drones and share those innovations with other Ukrainians. Those concepts spread to Europe and the United States, where entrepreneurs began developing new weapons and military equipment. One entrepreneur, Elon Musk, created SpaceX, a company that put thousands of communications satellites into orbit. Musk allowed Ukrainian forces to use this satellite network for battlefield communications, giving them an edge over the Russians.